Executive Summary
Risk-on into year-end: a softer USD, steady CNY, high gold (lower real rates), anchored Treasuries, tame oil, and weak ISM tilt policy toward easing and support liquidity. BTC leads (~$115.5K) with >57% dominance; ETFs show solid BTC/ETH inflows while sentiment is neutral and retail quiet, so rotations favor quality mid-caps on breadth days. Flows rotated out of L2s (Base/Arb) and into Ethereum and Hyperliquid; ETH still anchors TVL (~$95B), and BNB Chain stood out with surging fees/volumes as perps venues stay strong. Stablecoin supply (~$289B) shows moderating but positive momentum with persistent 4–5% yields and net inflows tilting toward Ethereum. key risks are a USD rebound, a rates backup, or an oil spike.
Market Overview
Macro
Based on these charts, the backdrop leans risk-on into year-end. DXY hovering ~97–98 and trending lower signals ongoing USD weakness, while a steadier CNY near 0.140 helps reduce devaluation tail risk and supports EM/liquidity flows. Gold around ~$3.68k reflects a strong store-of-value bid and softer real rates; the UST curve shows the 10Y anchored ~4.1% while the 30Y holds ~4.7–4.8%, consistent with a peak-rates, non-shock regime but with a lingering term premium. Crude near ~$62 points to muted inflation pressure, creating space for easier financial conditions if growth softens. ISM at 48.7 confirms contractionary manufacturing momentum but not a collapse, keeping policy bias tilted toward easing. Historically, this mix—weak USD, firm gold, cooling yields, and tame energy—precedes risk-on rotations. Expect majors to lead in crypto, followed by quality beta as breadth improves. Key triggers are DXY <97 with momentum and the 10Y grinding toward ~3.8%, ideally alongside positive net stablecoin issuance—while a USD rebound (>99–100), a rates backup (>4.3–4.5% on the 10Y or >5.1% on the 30Y), or an oil spike (>70–72) would argue for de-risking.
Crypto Market Summary
BTC/Crypto Price Action: Bitcoin trades at $115,588, down 0.45% in 24h but up 0.21% weekly. Total crypto market cap stands at $4.03T
BTC/ETH Dominance: Bitcoin dominance is commanding at 57.07%, while Ethereum holds 13.39% of total market share, indicating minimal dominance change this week.
ETF Flows: BTC led institutional interest with $886.5M inflows, followed by ETH at $557M, while SOL saw minimal activity at $38.1M.
Social/Search Trends: Bitcoin interest remains low at 18 (out of 100), while Crypto interest is slightly down at 27, indicating a decline in retail attention.
Fear & Greed Index: Currently at 49 (+1 weekly), indicating neutral market sentiment with minimal change from last week.
Rotation Bucket Analysis: Rotation score at 48.4, with mid-cap tokens ($10M-$100M) showing strength (+1.20%), while all other market cap bands face selling pressure.
Interpretations and Future Outlook
Flows and price action still read institution-led: steady spot bids (ETFs net positive), low retail heat (search/trend scores), and measured leverage. Macro is a tailwind—soft USD, cooler yields, tame energy—with gold already absorbing much of the safety bid, leaving incremental liquidity room to reach for crypto beta. In this regime, expect a BTC-led grind with dominance edging higher while breadth improves in waves: ETH and SOL should follow on risk-on days, but leadership likely stays with BTC until DXY <97 and the 10Y drifts toward ~3.8% alongside sustained positive stablecoin net issuance.
Playbook: favor majors and high-quality large caps; rotate into mid-caps on breadth expansions (confirm via stablecoin growth + ETF inflows + improving market-cap breadth). Risks: USD snapback (>99–100), rates backup (>4.3% 10Y / >5.1% 30Y), or oil >$70–72—any of which argues for trimming beta and reverting to BTC/ETH core. Path of least resistance: upward, majors first, with selective beta only on confirmed liquidity signals.
Chain Use
Data
Chains by bridge flows: This week, there has been large outflows from Base, Arbitrum, and unichain, alongside substantial inflows into Etherem and Hyperliquid.
Top chains by TVL: Ethereum $94.9B (-1.2%), Solana $12.5B (-4.6%), BNB Chain $8.0B (+3.9%), Tron $6.4B (-1.5%), Base $5.1B (0.0%), Arbitrum $3.5B (0.0%), Hyperliquid $2.4B (-7.7%), Avalanche C-Chain $2.2B (+4.8%).
Top chains by weekly fees: Hyperliquid $20.3M (+11.5%), Solana $11.2M (+14.3%), Ethereum $9.1M (–7.1%), Tron $9.1M (+8.3%), BNB Chain $5.07M (+35.0%), Base $1.31M (+19.5%), Osmosis $794.5K (–2.4%), Avalanche C-Chain $350.0K (+19.9%).
Top chains by DEX volume: Solana $29.4B (–6.7%), Ethereum $23.1B (+3.1%), BNB Chain $23.1B (+37.5%), Base $10.5B (+7.1%), Hyperliquid $6.67B (–26.7%), Avalanche C-Chain $4.36B (+13.4%), Sui $3.12B (–2.2%), Aptos $966M (–10.1%).
Interpretations and Future Outlook
Fees were up across the board this week, while DEX volumes slipped on most chains. BNB Chain was the clear outlier, posting a sharp jump in spot volume. Liquidity rotated out of L2s (notably Base/Arbitrum/Unichain) and into Ethereum and Hyperliquid, reinforcing a tilt toward L1 quality and perp venues. Net: supportive fee backdrop, softer spot breadth—favor majors and perps.
Stablecoin Metrics
Market Capitalization: The stablecoin market cap currently stands at $289 billion, reflecting a $3.4 billion decrease over the past week and a $11.4 billion increase over the past 30 days. This marks a continuation in the trend of accelerated growth that has been going for the past two months.
Stablecoin Supply Rates:
AAVE: 4.5%-5.07%
Kamino: 4.4%-5.1%
Save Finance: 5%–5.4%
JustLend: 1.6%-4.8% (5% USDD)
Spark.fi: 4.5%
Chain-Specific Changes: This week, stablecoin supply increased most on Ethereum while Tron and Solana saw outflows.
Token-Specific Changes: USDC, USDT, USDe, USDS, and USDf saw supply increases this week, while BUDL declined modestly.
Interpretation and Outlook: Stablecoin supply rose by ~$3.4B this week, marking a slowdown from the mid-July re-acceleration in growth. Even so, momentum remains well above pre-re-acceleration levels.
CT Mindshare
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Plasma mainnet launch anounced
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Streamer coin meta gained attention
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