This Week in Crypto (11/16/25)
Crypto market weekly overview and updates
Executive Summary
Markets are sitting in a classic “post-tightening, pre-easing” macro regime—yields off their highs, the dollar weakening, gold at records, and oil drifting lower—all conditions that have historically set the stage for improving liquidity and stronger risk-asset performance once policy shifts are confirmed. Yet crypto is still in a fear-driven shakeout: BTC is down ~10% on the week, dominance slipped, ETF flows for BTC and ETH turned sharply negative, and search interest for “crypto” is near 12-month lows. Stablecoins are also signaling caution, with market cap flattening, supply rotating to Ethereum, and USDC continuing its multi-month decline while USDT gains. Despite the defensive positioning, historical analogs—2016, 2019, late 2020—show that corrections against an improving macro backdrop often precede strong 3–9 month forward returns. Under the surface, selective risk-on behavior remains (e.g., SOL inflows, traction in new perp markets, GHO’s MiCA approval, and oversubscribed ecosystem raises), suggesting cleansing rather than structural deterioration. Near term, volatility and fear will likely persist, but the medium-term setup is quietly turning constructive as macro headwinds fade and liquidity conditions begin shifting in crypto’s favor.
Market Overview
Macro
Taken together, these charts look a lot like the classic “post-tightening, pre-easing” regime that has historically been good to risk assets once the policy pivot is confirmed. The 10Y and 30Y are off their prior highs but still elevated, which in past cycles (2000, 2018, 2022) has tended to mark the back half of a hiking cycle—forward returns for equities and, more recently, crypto improved materially once yields rolled over more decisively rather than making new highs. At the same time, a falling DXY alongside record-high gold has usually signaled that real yields are peaking and global capital is starting to rotate out of “safe USD duration” and into alternative stores of value and higher-beta assets; BTC’s strongest secular runs (2013, 2017, 2020–21) all occurred in environments where the dollar was flat-to-down and gold was bid rather than being liquidated.
Oil grinding down into the high-50s historically eases inflation pressure and gives central banks room to shift from fighting prices to supporting growth, which tends to compress risk premia and pull capital into equities, credit, EM, and eventually crypto. If that template holds, this mix—yields off the highs, a softer dollar, strong gold, and benign energy—doesn’t guarantee immediate upside, but it does resemble past setups where, over the next 6–18 months, liquidity quietly improves and the backdrop for crypto shifts from macro headwind to tailwind, with the main risk being a hard-landing shock rather than renewed inflation.
Crypto Market Summary
BTC Price Action: BTC is trading around $94,871 (-0.2% 24h, -10.17% 7d).
BTC/ETH Dominance: BTC at 59.5%, ETH at 11.9%. Interestingly, both BTC and BTC dominance dropped this week.
ETF Flows: Net outflows from BTC (–$1.1B) along with outflows from ETH (-$727M) overwhelmed SOL infows (+$46.4M) this week by over 10x.
Social/Search Trends: Interest in “Bitcoin” and “crypto” is near the bottom of its 12-month range. BTC seaches have slightly ticked up, while Crypto has continued to drop.
Fear & Greed Index: Currently at 17 (“Fear”), down 12 points over the past week, indicating extreme fear.
Interpretations and Future Outlook
The macro backdrop is shifting from a tightening headwind toward a slow-building liquidity tailwind, but markets haven’t fully priced that transition yet. Historically, when long-end yields plateau below their highs, the dollar trends lower, and gold outperforms, risk assets don’t rally immediately—sentiment typically capitulates first. That’s exactly what we’re seeing: fear rising, ETF flows negative, retail search interest collapsing, and dominance slipping even as the macro pressure eases. In past cycles (2016, 2019, late 2020), this combination has marked the later stages of a correction rather than the start of a new downturn. It often reflects exhaustion selling, not a structural break.
At the same time, the ETF outflows and dominance drop signal a rotation rather than broad flight. SOL inflows, even if small, show that selective risk-taking is still happening underneath the fear. Historically, when BTC corrections happen against a backdrop of improving macro currents, the forward 3–9 month returns tend to be strong as liquidity gradually improves and flows re-enter high-conviction assets first. If yields continue drifting lower and DXY remains weak, the next meaningful leg higher for crypto likely aligns with the policy pivot, especially as ETF flows eventually stabilize. In the near term, expect continued choppiness and emotionally driven price action, but the medium-term setup remains constructive—this is the type of environment where positioning gets cleaned out before the broader market recognizes the improving macro floor.
Stablecoin Metrics
Market Capitalization: Stablecoin market cap is $303.2B, with supply up $0.5B week over week and down $2B over the past 30 days. The marks the start of a declining trend of Stablecoin supply.
Stablecoin Supply Rates:
AAVE: 4.3%-6.2%
Kamino: 2.1%-3.3%
Save Finance: 5.3%–6.1%
JustLend: 2.1%-3.3% (7% USDD)
Spark.fi: 4.75%
Chain-Specific Changes: Supply increased most on Ethereum; Solana and Arbitrum saw outflows.
Token-Specific Changes: PYUSD and USDX increased in supply, while USDe and USDC experienced major outflows.
Interpretation and Outlook: Stablecoin growth is reversing: market cap flat WoW, supply is rotating to Ethereum, Solana and Plasma are seeing outflows, and USDT/USDS are gaining as USDC declines and USDe unwinds—signaling consolidation and a safety-first carry.
CT Mindshare
Massive fear in the market
The cryptocurrency markets are gripped by massive fear as Bitcoin and major altcoins plunge amid regulatory uncertainties and macroeconomic pressures. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has hit extreme fear levels, prompting widespread liquidations and a shift toward stablecoins among panicked investors.
Stock perps gaining traction on Hyperliquid
Stock perpetual futures are rapidly gaining popularity on the Hyperliquid decentralized exchange, offering traders seamless access to leveraged positions on traditional equities without expiration dates. This surge in adoption is bridging the gap between crypto and stock trading, attracting a new wave of users seeking 24/7 liquidity and innovative hedging tools.
Space closed and eco round.
Space (@intodotspace), the first leveraged prediction market on Solana, has closed its ecosystem funding round throughechodotxyz with a staggering 1,360% oversubscription. This milestone marks a strong start for the project, drawing significant interest from the crypto community for its innovative betting mechanisms.
Aave’s GHO was miCAR approved.
Aave’s overcollateralized stablecoin GHO has achieved MiCA regulatory approval in the EU, solidifying its compliance with stringent crypto asset standards. This milestone boosts GHO’s legitimacy, paving the way for increased institutional adoption and integration into mainstream financial services.